Soft Housing Data May Be the First Signs of a Slowing Economy
Today’s second-quarter GDP report is expected to deliver upbeat news about the US economy. Wobbly housing data may be telling a different story. It’s premature to assume the worst, but the weak year-over-year trends in several housing indicators suggest that today’s Q2 snapshot should be used cautiously as a guide to managing expectations for the near-term future. Econoday.com’s consensus forecast calls for a 4.2% increase in real GDP for Q2 (seasonally adjusted annual rate). If the estimate is correct, output will expand at the strongest pace in three-and-a-half years and more than double the rate over this year’s Q1. But